Audit log

Every state-changing event for UMA Protocol: moderation decisions on community submissions, plus corrections and updates from the news pipeline. URL-based decisions are designed to carry three independent witnesses — the original source, an Internet Archive snapshot, and a Solana memo signed by our publicly-disclosed publisher key. Archive coverage is still being backfilled, so each decision below reports its own snapshot status rather than assuming one exists.

1. #1publishby system:backfill

   2026-09-23 03:43:55Z
   Score: ? → ? (no score change)
   anchoranchored

   chain

   ●mainnet-betaslot 449,584,676

   sig

   2GmBTTptGMMM…54y5XKu6copyexplorer ↗

   hash

   3C1SnnAz37cK…PMg3ujiccopysha256 → base58

   verifying row…full verify ↗

   canonical bytes (19623 B) ▸

   {"actor":"system:backfill","investigation_id":"4b402597-e747-4d39-ba2c-00b9bf66fbae","kind":"publish","page_slug":"uma-protocol","published_at":"2026-09-23T03:43:54.906Z","sequence_num":1,"snapshot":{"content_type":"investigation","entity_name":"UMA Protocol","sections":[{"content":"Between March 24 and 25, 2025, a Polymarket contract asking 'Will Ukraine agree to Trump's mineral deal before April?' moved from roughly 9% to 100% 'Yes' and resolved as Yes, despite no minerals agreement having actually been signed at that time (the U.S. and Ukraine did not sign such a deal until late April 2025, after the market had already paid out). Polymarket's resolution process allows any party to propose an outcome by staking a $750 USDC.e bond; if the proposal is disputed, UMA token holders vote to settle it. Reporting found that a single actor, operating across three accounts holding a combined 5 million UMA tokens (about 25% of the votes cast in that round), was able to push the resolution to 'Yes.' Polymarket publicly acknowledged the outcome was 'unexpected' but initially declined to treat it as a market failure warranting refunds. Analysts estimated the actor profited on the order of $100,000–$300,000 from the flipped resolution, though exact profit figures are not independently confirmed by a primary financial disclosure.","heading":"March 2025 Ukraine Minerals Deal Governance Attack","severity":"critical","sources":[{"credibility":1,"name":"Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves - CoinDesk","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/27/polymarket-uma-communities-lock-horns-after-usd7m-ukraine-bet-resolves"},{"credibility":2,"name":"How Oracle Manipulation Happens in Prediction Markets: The Polymarket $7M Case - Orochi Network","type":"research","url":"https://orochi.network/blog/oracle-manipulation-in-polymarket-2025"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Whale Rigged $7M Polymarket Bet With 5M UMA Tokens - Coin360","type":"news_article","url":"https://coin360.com/news/polymarket-oracle-vote-manipulation-scandal"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Polymarket Reports 'Unprecedented' Governance Attack by UMA Whale on Bet Resolution - CoinMarketCap Academy","type":"news_article","url":"https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/polymarket-reports-unprecedented-governance-attack-by-uma-whale-on-bet-resolution"},{"credibility":3,"name":"Governance Attack or Smart Trade? UMA's Oracle Just Got Outplayed on Polymarket - Medium (Nothing Research)","type":"research","url":"https://medium.com/@Nothing_Research/governance-attack-or-smart-trade-umas-oracle-just-got-outplayed-on-polymarket-ced65edf1be4"}]},{"content":"In a separate, earlier dispute (June 2024), a Polymarket market asked whether Barron Trump was involved in creating the Solana-based 'DJT' token. UMA token holders voted 'No' by an overwhelming majority. Polymarket publicly rejected its own oracle's outcome, stating 'we firmly believe that UMA got this resolution wrong,' and announced it would resolve the market as effectively 'Yes' or issue refunds to Yes-side holders 'to uphold the integrity of the marketplace,' without publishing clear new evidence to justify the reversal. This is a notable case of the platform operator unilaterally overruling a resolution produced by the decentralized dispute process it advertises as neutral and binding, and it undermines claims that UMA-based resolution removes discretionary control from Polymarket. It is alleged, though not proven with primary financial records, that the override was influenced by market and reputational pressure following the DJT token's roughly 17.5% price drop after the initial 'No' resolution.","heading":"Polymarket Overriding Its Own Oracle: Barron Trump / DJT Token Dispute","severity":"high","sources":[{"credibility":1,"name":"Polymarket contradicts UMA's resolution on Barron Trump's involvement with DJT token - The Block","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.theblock.co/post/302171/polymarket-contradicts-umas-resolution-on-barron-trumps-involvement-with-djt-token"},{"credibility":2,"name":"UPDATE: Polymarket Says It's 'Conclusive' Barron Trump Was Involved in $DJT - Yahoo Finance","type":"news_article","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-contradicts-oracle-rarity-prediction-022105806.html"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Polymarket reverses Oracle decision on Barron Trump's involvement in DJT meme coin - crypto.news","type":"news_article","url":"https://crypto.news/polymarket-reverses-oracle-decision-on-barron-trumps-involvement-in-djt-meme-coin/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Polymarket slams vote on Barron Trump, DJT token - DL News","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/polymarket-slams-vote-on-barron-trump-and-djt-token/"}]},{"content":"A Bloomberg investigation, reported by CryptoTimes, found that as of mid-2026 nine anonymous crypto wallets controlled nearly half of all UMA voting power used to resolve Polymarket disputes, despite more than 6,400 accounts participating in voting overall. Bloomberg reported these wallets frequently vote together and consistently land on the winning side of disputes. Over roughly a year, about 2,000 Polymarket contracts were disputed and routed through UMA voting; in April 2026 alone, about 230 disputed contracts covering more than $1 billion in market value were settled this way. Researchers and critics cited in the reporting, including Jan Czarnocki, argued that this concentration undermines confidence in resolution neutrality, particularly for high-stakes geopolitical markets. This structural concentration is the underlying condition that made the March 2025 Ukraine-deal manipulation possible and remains a standing governance risk rather than a one-off incident.","heading":"Voting Power Concentration","severity":"high","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"Only 9 Wallets Control Nearly Half of UMA Voting Power on Polymarket: Bloomberg - CryptoTimes","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/05/27/only-9-wallets-control-nearly-half-of-uma-voting-power-on-polymarket-bloomberg/"}]},{"content":"Following the March 2025 Ukraine-deal incident, Risk Labs and the UMA community adopted a governance proposal (UMIP-189) introducing a 'Managed Optimistic Oracle V2' (MOOV2) for Polymarket-linked markets, restricting who can propose resolutions on flagged markets to a vetted, track-record-based whitelist. The whitelist reportedly began with 37 addresses (including Risk Labs staff, Polymarket staff, and high-accuracy community proposers) and expanded to roughly 177 addresses by November 2025, with eligibility requiring a minimum number of proposals and a 95%-plus historical accuracy rate over a rolling six-month window. UMA also modified its gas-rebate program, effective June 2026, to exclude delegates operating within voting pools, intended to reduce incentives for vote-bloc formation. These changes represent a genuine, verifiable response to the manipulation risk, though because they add a curated whitelist layer, they also move the system somewhat away from pure decentralization and toward permissioned oversight — a tradeoff not fully resolved as of this writing. Independent verification of the whitelist's current size and effectiveness beyond the cited secondary sources was not found.","heading":"UMA's Governance Reforms Following the Attacks","severity":"medium","sources":[{"credibility":3,"name":"Governance Attack or Smart Trade? UMA's Oracle Just Got Outplayed on Polymarket - Medium (Nothing Research)","type":"research","url":"https://medium.com/@Nothing_Research/governance-attack-or-smart-trade-umas-oracle-just-got-outplayed-on-polymarket-ced65edf1be4"},{"credibility":1,"name":"DVM 2.0 FAQ - UMA Documentation","type":"official","url":"https://docs.uma.xyz/protocol-overview/dvm-2.0-faq"}]},{"content":"On April 7, 2026, roughly 50 newly created Polymarket accounts placed unusually large, well-timed bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire minutes to hours before President Trump announced a ceasefire, generating substantial trading volume and profits (reports cite at least one wallet turning a roughly $72,000 stake into about $200,000, and four new wallets collectively profiting over $600,000). U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres sent a letter calling on the CFTC to investigate the pattern for possible insider trading, and Senator Richard Blumenthal separately demanded answers from Polymarket. This episode concerns alleged front-running or insider trading on Polymarket's trading layer and is under regulatory and congressional scrutiny; available sources do not establish that UMA's oracle or voting mechanism was itself manipulated in this instance, and the underlying market resolution (whether by consensus or dispute vote) was not reported as contested. It is included here because it reflects on the broader trust environment in which UMA's oracle operates, not as a confirmed UMA governance failure.","heading":"Related Polymarket Controversy: April 2026 Ceasefire Market (Not a Direct UMA Oracle Manipulation)","severity":"medium","sources":[{"credibility":1,"name":"Rep. Ritchie Torres Calls on CFTC to Investigate Suspicious Polymarket Trades Ahead of Trump's Iran Ceasefire Announcement - House.gov","type":"official","url":"https://ritchietorres.house.gov/posts/rep-torres-calls-on-cftc-to-investigate-suspicious-polymarket-trades-ahead-of-trumps-iran-ceasefire-announcement"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Blumenthal Demands Answers from Polymarket Following Suspicious Bets on Ceasefire - Senator Blumenthal","type":"official","url":"https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/blumenthal-demands-answers-from-polymarket-following-suspicious-bets-on-ceasefire"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers - NPR","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/04/10/nx-s1-5780569/betting-polymarket-iran-investigation-lawmakers"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Newly made Polymarket accounts won massively on US-Iran ceasefire bets - Euronews","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/04/09/newly-made-polymarket-accounts-won-massively-on-us-iran-ceasefire-bets"}]},{"content":"UMA was founded in 2018 by Hart Lambur and Allison Lu, both former Goldman Sachs traders; Lambur previously founded and sold the portfolio-management platform Openfolio. The protocol is stewarded by the non-profit Risk Labs Foundation, with Lambur as CEO. UMA is a long-established, publicly documented, non-anonymous project with an open whitepaper (published December 2018) and public governance processes, distinguishing it from anonymous or fraudulent crypto projects. As of September 2026, UMA's token traded around $0.38 with a market capitalization near $35 million and protocol TVL near $63 million, down sharply (over 99%) from its February 2021 all-time high, reflecting broader token depreciation rather than a specific fraud finding.","heading":"Background: Founders and Protocol Legitimacy","severity":"low","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"What is UMA? - The Defiant","type":"research","url":"https://thedefiant.io/what-is-uma"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Risk Labs Foundation - official site","type":"official","url":"https://risklabs.foundation/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"UMA Price: UMA/USD Live Price Chart, Market Cap & News Today - CoinGecko","type":"on_chain","url":"https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/uma"}]}],"sources_used":[{"credibility":1,"name":"Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves - CoinDesk","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/27/polymarket-uma-communities-lock-horns-after-usd7m-ukraine-bet-resolves"},{"credibility":2,"name":"How Oracle Manipulation Happens in Prediction Markets: The Polymarket $7M Case - Orochi Network","type":"research","url":"https://orochi.network/blog/oracle-manipulation-in-polymarket-2025"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Whale Rigged $7M Polymarket Bet With 5M UMA Tokens - Coin360","type":"news_article","url":"https://coin360.com/news/polymarket-oracle-vote-manipulation-scandal"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Polymarket Reports 'Unprecedented' Governance Attack by UMA Whale on Bet Resolution - CoinMarketCap Academy","type":"news_article","url":"https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/polymarket-reports-unprecedented-governance-attack-by-uma-whale-on-bet-resolution"},{"credibility":3,"name":"Governance Attack or Smart Trade? UMA's Oracle Just Got Outplayed on Polymarket - Medium (Nothing Research)","type":"research","url":"https://medium.com/@Nothing_Research/governance-attack-or-smart-trade-umas-oracle-just-got-outplayed-on-polymarket-ced65edf1be4"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Polymarket contradicts UMA's resolution on Barron Trump's involvement with DJT token - The Block","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.theblock.co/post/302171/polymarket-contradicts-umas-resolution-on-barron-trumps-involvement-with-djt-token"},{"credibility":2,"name":"UPDATE: Polymarket Says It's 'Conclusive' Barron Trump Was Involved in $DJT - Yahoo Finance","type":"news_article","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-contradicts-oracle-rarity-prediction-022105806.html"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Polymarket reverses Oracle decision on Barron Trump's involvement in DJT meme coin - crypto.news","type":"news_article","url":"https://crypto.news/polymarket-reverses-oracle-decision-on-barron-trumps-involvement-in-djt-meme-coin/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Polymarket slams vote on Barron Trump, DJT token - DL News","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/polymarket-slams-vote-on-barron-trump-and-djt-token/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Only 9 Wallets Control Nearly Half of UMA Voting Power on Polymarket: Bloomberg - CryptoTimes","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/05/27/only-9-wallets-control-nearly-half-of-uma-voting-power-on-polymarket-bloomberg/"},{"credibility":1,"name":"DVM 2.0 FAQ - UMA Documentation","type":"official","url":"https://docs.uma.xyz/protocol-overview/dvm-2.0-faq"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Rep. Ritchie Torres Calls on CFTC to Investigate Suspicious Polymarket Trades Ahead of Trump's Iran Ceasefire Announcement - House.gov","type":"official","url":"https://ritchietorres.house.gov/posts/rep-torres-calls-on-cftc-to-investigate-suspicious-polymarket-trades-ahead-of-trumps-iran-ceasefire-announcement"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Blumenthal Demands Answers from Polymarket Following Suspicious Bets on Ceasefire - Senator Blumenthal","type":"official","url":"https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/blumenthal-demands-answers-from-polymarket-following-suspicious-bets-on-ceasefire"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers - NPR","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/04/10/nx-s1-5780569/betting-polymarket-iran-investigation-lawmakers"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Newly made Polymarket accounts won massively on US-Iran ceasefire bets - Euronews","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/04/09/newly-made-polymarket-accounts-won-massively-on-us-iran-ceasefire-bets"},{"credibility":2,"name":"What is UMA? - The Defiant","type":"research","url":"https://thedefiant.io/what-is-uma"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Risk Labs Foundation - official site","type":"official","url":"https://risklabs.foundation/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"UMA Price: UMA/USD Live Price Chart, Market Cap & News Today - CoinGecko","type":"on_chain","url":"https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/uma"}],"summary":"UMA is an Ethereum-based decentralized 'optimistic oracle' founded in 2018 by ex-Goldman Sachs traders Hart Lambur and Allison Lu, and is stewarded by the Risk Labs Foundation. It is best known as the dispute-resolution mechanism underlying Polymarket, the largest crypto prediction-market platform. UMA is a long-running, non-anonymous infrastructure project rather than a scam, but its token-weighted voting design has repeatedly proven vulnerable to concentrated-holder manipulation, most notably a March 2025 incident in which a whale controlling 25% of votes falsely resolved a $7 million Polymarket contract. Separately, Polymarket has at least once unilaterally overridden UMA's own vote outcome, raising questions about whether UMA's resolutions are actually binding in practice.","timeline":[{"date":"2018-12-01","event":"UMA whitepaper published; protocol founded by Hart Lambur and Allison Lu.","source":"The Defiant","source_url":"https://thedefiant.io/what-is-uma"},{"date":"2024-06-27","event":"UMA holders vote 'No' on whether Barron Trump was involved in creating the Solana DJT token; Polymarket publicly rejects the outcome and moves to refund 'Yes' bettors without disclosing new evidence.","source":"The Block","source_url":"https://www.theblock.co/post/302171/polymarket-contradicts-umas-resolution-on-barron-trumps-involvement-with-djt-token"},{"date":"2025-03-24","event":"A Polymarket contract on a Ukraine-Trump minerals deal begins moving from 9% to 100% 'Yes' probability ahead of any confirmed agreement.","source":"CoinDesk","source_url":"https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/27/polymarket-uma-communities-lock-horns-after-usd7m-ukraine-bet-resolves"},{"date":"2025-03-25","event":"The $7M Ukraine minerals market resolves 'Yes'; reporting later attributes the outcome to a single actor casting 25% of votes (5M UMA across three accounts).","source":"Orochi Network / CoinDesk","source_url":"https://orochi.network/blog/oracle-manipulation-in-polymarket-2025"},{"date":"2025-03-27","event":"CoinDesk reports on the dispute between Polymarket and UMA communities over the resolution.","source":"CoinDesk","source_url":"https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/27/polymarket-uma-communities-lock-horns-after-usd7m-ukraine-bet-resolves"},{"date":"2025-04-30","event":"A genuine U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement is reported to have been signed, more than a month after the disputed market had already paid out.","source":"Orochi Network","source_url":"https://orochi.network/blog/oracle-manipulation-in-polymarket-2025"},{"date":"2026-04-07","event":"Roughly 50 newly created Polymarket wallets place large, well-timed bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire shortly before Trump's announcement, generating tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit per wallet.","source":"Euronews / NPR","source_url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/04/10/nx-s1-5780569/betting-polymarket-iran-investigation-lawmakers"},{"date":"2026-04-09","event":"Rep. Ritchie Torres sends letter urging the CFTC to investigate the suspicious pre-announcement betting pattern.","source":"Ritchie Torres House.gov","source_url":"https://ritchietorres.house.gov/posts/rep-torres-calls-on-cftc-to-investigate-suspicious-polymarket-trades-ahead-of-trumps-iran-ceasefire-announcement"},{"date":"2026-05-27","event":"Bloomberg reporting (via CryptoTimes) finds nine wallets control nearly half of UMA's Polymarket-related voting power.","source":"CryptoTimes","source_url":"https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/05/27/only-9-wallets-control-nearly-half-of-uma-voting-power-on-polymarket-bloomberg/"},{"date":"2026-06-15","event":"UMA's revised gas-rebate program takes effect, excluding voting-pool delegates to discourage vote-bloc formation.","source":"Medium (Nothing Research)","source_url":"https://medium.com/@Nothing_Research/governance-attack-or-smart-trade-umas-oracle-just-got-outplayed-on-polymarket-ced65edf1be4"}]},"v":1}

   Verify offline (run on your own machine)

   python -m src.verify_decision 0a2139c9-5b5e-4480-beef-921a88bdf5e0copy