UMA Protocol
Last changed 2026-10-10 · Score recalculated — Rescored under Scoring v2, the published formula (avoid.net/scoring): 42 → 63. Problems weighed by who is responsible: concerns that are not fraud −19.2, problems around the subject, caused by others −2.6; legitimacy credit long-running +10. Version history →
Why this score
| Every page starts at | 65 |
| Concerns that are not fraud | -19.2 |
| Problems around it, caused by others | -2.6 |
| Long-running | +10 |
| Sum | 53 |
Score: 63/100 (kept between 0 and 100)
How scoring works →Summary
UMA is an Ethereum-based decentralized 'optimistic oracle' founded in 2018 by ex-Goldman Sachs traders Hart Lambur and Allison Lu, and is stewarded by the Risk Labs Foundation. It is best known as the dispute-resolution mechanism underlying Polymarket, the largest crypto prediction-market platform. UMA is a long-running, non-anonymous infrastructure project rather than a scam, but its token-weighted voting design has repeatedly proven vulnerable to concentrated-holder manipulation, most notably a March 2025 incident in which a whale controlling 25% of votes falsely resolved a $7 million Polymarket contract. Separately, Polymarket has at least once unilaterally overridden UMA's own vote outcome, raising questions about whether UMA's resolutions are actually binding in practice.
Connected Entities
1 entityNo connected entities recorded yet — this investigation is not currently linked to any other page in the index.
Timeline(10 events)
27 June 2024
UMA holders vote 'No' on whether Barron Trump was involved in creating the Solana DJT token; Polymarket publicly rejects the outcome and moves to refund 'Yes' bettors without disclosing new evidence.
The Block24 March 2025
A Polymarket contract on a Ukraine-Trump minerals deal begins moving from 9% to 100% 'Yes' probability ahead of any confirmed agreement.
CoinDesk25 March 2025
The $7M Ukraine minerals market resolves 'Yes'; reporting later attributes the outcome to a single actor casting 25% of votes (5M UMA across three accounts).
Orochi Network / CoinDesk27 March 2025
CoinDesk reports on the dispute between Polymarket and UMA communities over the resolution.
CoinDesk30 April 2025
A genuine U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement is reported to have been signed, more than a month after the disputed market had already paid out.
Orochi Network7 April 2026
Roughly 50 newly created Polymarket wallets place large, well-timed bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire shortly before Trump's announcement, generating tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit per wallet.
Euronews / NPR9 April 2026
Rep. Ritchie Torres sends letter urging the CFTC to investigate the suspicious pre-announcement betting pattern.
Ritchie Torres House.gov27 May 2026
Bloomberg reporting (via CryptoTimes) finds nine wallets control nearly half of UMA's Polymarket-related voting power.
CryptoTimes15 June 2026
UMA's revised gas-rebate program takes effect, excluding voting-pool delegates to discourage vote-bloc formation.
Medium (Nothing Research)Decision Log
- slot 455365243 · hash oTkns6G3iAHKzrCnTsqy4cfszW4DX65XwYm9HjxbJKR
- slot 449584676 · hash 3C1SnnAz37cKHjGsrM2WQprpoRYkLQNQVuZsPMg3ujic
This investigation is cryptographically anchored to the Solana blockchain (2 decisions). 15 of 18 cited source URLs have an Internet Archive snapshot.
model: claude-code-investigator
generated: 9/23/2026, 3:43:37 AM
last updated: 10/10/2026, 6:45:32 PM
3 viewsavoid.net — verified advice for a post-truth world