Audit log

Every state-changing event for Underdog Predict: moderation decisions on community submissions, plus corrections and updates from the news pipeline. URL-based decisions are designed to carry three independent witnesses — the original source, an Internet Archive snapshot, and a Solana memo signed by our publicly-disclosed publisher key. Archive coverage is still being backfilled, so each decision below reports its own snapshot status rather than assuming one exists.

1. #1publishby system:backfill

   2026-09-23 04:08:17Z
   Score: ? → ? (no score change)
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   {"actor":"system:backfill","investigation_id":"e5fd887a-c6fc-46c6-a7a5-a8cdb487cba0","kind":"publish","page_slug":"underdog-predict","published_at":"2026-09-23T04:08:17.056Z","sequence_num":1,"snapshot":{"content_type":"investigation","entity_name":"Underdog Predict","sections":[{"content":"Underdog Predict is a sports prediction market offered by Underdog Sports LLC, best known as a daily fantasy sports (DFS) operator. In March 2026, Underdog acquired Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc. and Aristotle Exchange DCO, Inc., giving it a CFTC-registered designated contract market (DCM) and derivatives clearing organization (DCO). On July 18, 2026, Underdog launched its own federally licensed exchange, branded UDX, moving Underdog Predict's sports event contracts onto in-house infrastructure; Underdog states it also holds a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) registration, giving it what it describes as a full prediction-market license stack. Before launching UDX, Underdog offered sports prediction markets as an intermediary partner to other exchanges, including Kalshi and Crypto.com.","heading":"Product and corporate structure","severity":"low","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Fantasy acquires prediction markets exchange and lays off employees in pivot - SportsPro","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.sportspro.com/news/betting/underdog-fantasy-prediction-markets-aristotle-march-2026/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Launches Prediction Markets on its own Exchange","type":"official","url":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260718201640/en/Underdog-Launches-Prediction-Markets-on-its-own-Exchange"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Launches Own CFTC-Licensed Prediction Market","type":"news_article","url":"https://sbcamericas.com/2026/07/20/underdog-prediction-market-exchange/"}]},{"content":"On September 11-14, 2026, Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) issued cease-and-desist orders to nine prediction-market operators — Polymarket, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood, ProphetX, Novig, Webull, Gemini and Underdog Predict — directing them to immediately stop advertising, promoting or offering sports event contracts to Connecticut residents, and to permit existing customers to withdraw their funds. The state said noncompliance could expose operators to civil penalties under the Connecticut Unfair Trade Practices Act and criminal penalties under state gaming law. Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont stated that prediction markets have branded themselves as \"legal and safe\" but are not adhering to the state's consumer protection standards. The order followed a separate Connecticut lawsuit against Kalshi and an August 2026 federal court ruling that Connecticut characterized as finding sports event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling not protected by federal commodities law.","heading":"Connecticut cease-and-desist order (September 2026)","severity":"high","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"Connecticut orders nine prediction markets to halt sports event contracts - Yogonet","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/09/14/126372-connecticut-orders-nine-prediction-markets-to-halt-sports-event-contracts"},{"credibility":2,"name":"CT sends cease-and-desist orders to 9 prediction markets - WSHU","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.wshu.org/connecticut-news/2026-09-11/ct-cease-and-desist-prediction-markets"}]},{"content":"On September 16-18, 2026, Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway issued cease-and-desist letters to six operators — Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood — asserting that their sports event contracts constitute unlicensed sports wagering under Missouri law. The AG's office rejected the operators' argument that event contracts qualify as \"swaps\" under the federal Commodity Exchange Act, and cited Missouri's 2024 voter-approved Amendment 2, which established the Missouri Gaming Commission as the sole licensing authority for sports wagering. The letters gave operators 30 days from September 16, 2026 to stop offering sports event contracts to Missouri residents or face further enforcement action. The AG's office also alleged that several named platforms, including Underdog, either allowed underage users to access the product or lacked sufficient age-verification measures to keep users under 21 from participating.","heading":"Missouri cease-and-desist order (September 2026)","severity":"high","sources":[{"credibility":1,"name":"Missouri Attorney General Hanaway Orders Unlicensed Prediction Markets To Cease And Desist Unlawful Sports Wagering","type":"regulatory","url":"https://ago.mo.gov/missouri-attorney-general-hanaway-orders-unlicensed-prediction-markets-to-cease-and-desist-unlawful-sports-wagering/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Missouri AG issues cease-and-desist orders to six prediction markets - ABC17NEWS","type":"news_article","url":"https://abc17news.com/news/missouri/2026/09/18/missouri-ag-issues-cease-and-desist-orders-to-six-prediction-markets/"}]},{"content":"Underdog has sued Connecticut, and separately sued Ohio, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Washington, seeking declaratory and injunctive relief to keep offering sports event contracts in those states. The company argues it operates as a federally regulated designated contract market (DCM) under the Commodity Exchange Act, and that the CFTC has \"exclusive jurisdiction\" over trading on DCMs, preempting state gambling enforcement. Missouri's cease-and-desist letter explicitly rejects this argument, citing federal court rulings that it says have found state sports-wagering laws are not preempted by federal commodities law. As of this writing, the underlying legal question — whether CFTC-licensed sports event contracts are exempt from state gambling regulation — remains unresolved in litigation; outcomes have differed by jurisdiction and no nationwide precedent has been established. Alongside these suits, Underdog dropped its daily fantasy sports licenses in at least seven states in September 2026, a move reported as part of a strategic pivot toward defending its prediction-markets business.","heading":"Underdog's legal response and federal preemption claim","severity":"medium","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog sues Connecticut to stop sports prediction market crackdown - The Block","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-16-underdog-sues-connecticut-415242"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog sues Connecticut over sports prediction-market crackdown - Yogonet","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/09/18/126448-underdog-sues-connecticut-over-sports-predictionmarket-crackdown"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Sues Five States, Drops Fantasy Licenses in Seven to Save Prediction Markets - Gaming America","type":"news_article","url":"https://gamingamerica.com/news/1101535/underdog-sues-five-states-drops-fantasy-licenses-in-seven-to-save-prediction-markets"}]},{"content":"Before the prediction-markets dispute, Underdog's core daily fantasy sports (DFS) product faced separate state-level legal challenges. In California, Underdog sued to block Attorney General Rob Bonta from publishing an advisory opinion characterizing DFS games as illegal sports betting under state law; a Sacramento County judge declined to block the opinion in July 2025. Underdog subsequently lost related litigation as California's AG process moved forward. A proposed class-action complaint (Koning v. Underdog Sports LLC) alleges Underdog operated DFS contests amounting to unlicensed gambling and seeks recovery on behalf of users who lost money. These allegations concern Underdog's fantasy-sports product rather than Underdog Predict specifically, but reflect a recurring pattern of state regulators and private plaintiffs challenging Underdog's product classifications.","heading":"Prior regulatory history: daily fantasy sports operations","severity":"medium","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Fantasy Launches Lawsuit to Block California AG's DFS Ban - Gambling News","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.gamblingnews.com/news/underdog-fantasy-launches-lawsuit-to-block-california-ags-dfs-ban/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Loses Lawsuit as California AG Nears DFS Ruling - Deadspin","type":"news_article","url":"https://deadspin.com/legal-betting/underdog-fantasy-loses-lawsuit-california-ag-issues-dfs-opinion/"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Koning v. Underdog Sports LLC - Class Action Complaint","type":"court_filing","url":"https://www.classaction.org/media/koning-v-underdog-sports-llc-complaint.pdf"}]},{"content":"Connecticut's cease-and-desist order explicitly required Underdog Predict and the other named operators to permit existing customers to withdraw their funds, rather than freezing accounts — indicating the state's concern was continued unlicensed offering of new contracts, not alleged misappropriation of customer funds. No source reviewed alleges that Underdog Predict has frozen withdrawals, misused customer funds, or faced insolvency. Underdog's clearing relationship (reported to route through Kalshi's clearing infrastructure for some brokerage functions even after UDX's July 2026 launch) has not been the subject of any reported fund-safety complaint. This section will be revised if evidence of withdrawal denial or fund shortfalls emerges.","heading":"User-fund and withdrawal risk","severity":"low","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"Connecticut orders nine prediction markets to halt sports event contracts - Yogonet","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/09/14/126372-connecticut-orders-nine-prediction-markets-to-halt-sports-event-contracts"},{"credibility":3,"name":"Underdog Predict Review 2026 - OddsShopper","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/underdog-predict-review"}]}],"sources_used":[{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Fantasy acquires prediction markets exchange and lays off employees in pivot - SportsPro","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.sportspro.com/news/betting/underdog-fantasy-prediction-markets-aristotle-march-2026/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Launches Prediction Markets on its own Exchange","type":"official","url":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260718201640/en/Underdog-Launches-Prediction-Markets-on-its-own-Exchange"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Launches Own CFTC-Licensed Prediction Market","type":"news_article","url":"https://sbcamericas.com/2026/07/20/underdog-prediction-market-exchange/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Connecticut orders nine prediction markets to halt sports event contracts - Yogonet","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/09/14/126372-connecticut-orders-nine-prediction-markets-to-halt-sports-event-contracts"},{"credibility":2,"name":"CT sends cease-and-desist orders to 9 prediction markets - WSHU","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.wshu.org/connecticut-news/2026-09-11/ct-cease-and-desist-prediction-markets"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Missouri Attorney General Hanaway Orders Unlicensed Prediction Markets To Cease And Desist Unlawful Sports Wagering","type":"regulatory","url":"https://ago.mo.gov/missouri-attorney-general-hanaway-orders-unlicensed-prediction-markets-to-cease-and-desist-unlawful-sports-wagering/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Missouri AG issues cease-and-desist orders to six prediction markets - ABC17NEWS","type":"news_article","url":"https://abc17news.com/news/missouri/2026/09/18/missouri-ag-issues-cease-and-desist-orders-to-six-prediction-markets/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog sues Connecticut to stop sports prediction market crackdown - The Block","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-16-underdog-sues-connecticut-415242"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog sues Connecticut over sports prediction-market crackdown - Yogonet","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/09/18/126448-underdog-sues-connecticut-over-sports-predictionmarket-crackdown"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Sues Five States, Drops Fantasy Licenses in Seven to Save Prediction Markets - Gaming America","type":"news_article","url":"https://gamingamerica.com/news/1101535/underdog-sues-five-states-drops-fantasy-licenses-in-seven-to-save-prediction-markets"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Fantasy Launches Lawsuit to Block California AG's DFS Ban - Gambling News","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.gamblingnews.com/news/underdog-fantasy-launches-lawsuit-to-block-california-ags-dfs-ban/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Loses Lawsuit as California AG Nears DFS Ruling - Deadspin","type":"news_article","url":"https://deadspin.com/legal-betting/underdog-fantasy-loses-lawsuit-california-ag-issues-dfs-opinion/"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Koning v. Underdog Sports LLC - Class Action Complaint","type":"court_filing","url":"https://www.classaction.org/media/koning-v-underdog-sports-llc-complaint.pdf"},{"credibility":3,"name":"Underdog Predict Review 2026 - OddsShopper","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/underdog-predict-review"}],"summary":"Underdog Predict is a sports-event-contract (prediction market) product operated by Underdog Sports LLC, the daily-fantasy-sports company, running on Underdog's own CFTC-licensed exchange (UDX) since July 2026. In September 2026 it was named in cease-and-desist actions by Connecticut and Missouri, which characterize its sports event contracts as unlicensed sports wagering rather than lawful derivatives trading. Underdog disputes this characterization and has sued several states, arguing federal commodities law preempts state gambling regulation; no court has yet ruled on the merits of that dispute, and this is a regulatory/jurisdictional conflict rather than an allegation of fraud or misappropriation of user funds.","timeline":[{"date":"2026-03-01","event":"Underdog acquires Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc. and Aristotle Exchange DCO, Inc., giving it a CFTC-registered designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization.","source":"SportsPro","source_url":"https://www.sportspro.com/news/betting/underdog-fantasy-prediction-markets-aristotle-march-2026/"},{"date":"2026-07-18","event":"Underdog launches its own CFTC-licensed exchange (UDX) and begins running Underdog Predict's sports event contracts on it.","source":"BusinessWire / SBC Americas","source_url":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260718201640/en/Underdog-Launches-Prediction-Markets-on-its-own-Exchange"},{"date":"2026-09-11","event":"Connecticut DCP begins issuing cease-and-desist orders to nine prediction-market operators, including Underdog Predict, ordering a halt to sports event contracts and permitting customer withdrawals.","source":"WSHU","source_url":"https://www.wshu.org/connecticut-news/2026-09-11/ct-cease-and-desist-prediction-markets"},{"date":"2026-09-16","event":"Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway sends cease-and-desist letters to six operators, including Underdog, giving 30 days to stop offering sports event contracts to Missouri residents.","source":"Missouri Attorney General's Office","source_url":"https://ago.mo.gov/missouri-attorney-general-hanaway-orders-unlicensed-prediction-markets-to-cease-and-desist-unlawful-sports-wagering/"},{"date":"2026-09-16","event":"Underdog sues Connecticut (and separately Ohio, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Washington) seeking to block state cease-and-desist enforcement on federal preemption grounds.","source":"The Block","source_url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-16-underdog-sues-connecticut-415242"},{"date":"2026-09-18","event":"Missouri AG's cease-and-desist orders to six prediction markets, including Underdog, reported publicly.","source":"ABC17NEWS","source_url":"https://abc17news.com/news/missouri/2026/09/18/missouri-ag-issues-cease-and-desist-orders-to-six-prediction-markets/"}]},"v":1}

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2. #2rescoreby systemsystem

   2026-10-10 18:47:54Z
   Score: 48 → 56 (+8)
   Rescored under Scoring v2, the published formula (avoid.net/scoring): 48 → 56. Problems weighed by who is responsible: concerns that are not fraud −18.4, problems around the subject, caused by others −0.6.
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   {"actor":"system","decided_at":"2026-10-10T18:47:54.750Z","decision":"rescore","investigation_id":"e5fd887a-c6fc-46c6-a7a5-a8cdb487cba0","new_score":56,"page_slug":"underdog-predict","prev_score":48,"reason":"Rescored under Scoring v2, the published formula (avoid.net/scoring): 48 → 56. Problems weighed by who is responsible: concerns that are not fraud −18.4, problems around the subject, caused by others −0.6.","score_delta":8,"score_model":"v2","sequence_num":2,"submission_content_hash":null,"submission_id":null,"submission_kind":null,"submission_valence":null,"v":1}

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3. #3reviewby reviewerreviewer

   2026-10-27 18:15:54Z
   Score: 56 → 56 (no score change)
   The core regulatory narrative (CT and MO cease-and-desist orders, Underdog's preemption suits) is supported by the sources I checked. Several details are unverified or slightly off: the Lamont quote, the CT withdrawal provision, the Missouri 30-day window, and a one-day offset in the suit date. The page omits the pending IG Group acquisition. The DFS history section and several sources were not checked.
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   {"actor":"reviewer","artifact_identity":"6b5dece9d120c766d144d562a9e2af25","decided_at":"2026-10-27T18:15:54.807Z","decision":"review","disputed_pct":0.2857,"findings_hash":"8QsKex51drt6MVFkA2bJQ8TRoWQvhKpkrdA2oaYGchNu","investigation_id":"e5fd887a-c6fc-46c6-a7a5-a8cdb487cba0","judge_def_hash":"8800307026131ea9d5da939d32b9a1f1884b2b84a5de33c8e87931d36f38d0f8","new_score":56,"omissions":{"material":1,"total":1},"page_content_hash":"14a0eff29a75f01d9e2cb9344af3569c29320e01135782474417aeb7c0a3f52e","page_slug":"underdog-predict","prev_score":56,"reason":"The core regulatory narrative (CT and MO cease-and-desist orders, Underdog's preemption suits) is supported by the sources I checked. Several details are unverified or slightly off: the Lamont quote, the CT withdrawal provision, the Missouri 30-day window, and a one-day offset in the suit date. The page omits the pending IG Group acquisition. The DFS history section and several sources were not checked.","reviewer_def_hash":"bc11388ce4bc4deea1b064fea362663ae06e3f4f687f99604769044d6ffba770","score_delta":0,"sequence_num":3,"subject_status":"operating","subject_status_contradicts_page":false,"submission_content_hash":null,"submission_id":null,"submission_kind":null,"submission_valence":null,"v":1}

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4. #4review reviseby judgejudge

   2026-10-27 18:15:55Z
   Score: 56 → 56 (no score change)
   Of 7 claims checked, 2 could not be verified (claim_findings[1], the Lamont quote, and claim_findings[2], the Connecticut withdrawal provision; the cited source did not contain either) and none were disputed, giving about 29%. The core regulatory narrative (Connecticut and Missouri cease-and-desist orders, Underdog's preemption suits) was supported. Three further claims were only partly supported: the Missouri 30-day window, a likely one-day offset in the lawsuit date, and the UDX launch day. The page also omits the pending IG Group acquisition of Underdog announced 2026-07-30 (omission_findings[0], material). The reviewer did not fetch several sources and its confidence was moderate, so the penalty is kept in the minor band.
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   {"actor":"judge","artifact_identity":"6b5dece9d120c766d144d562a9e2af25","band_override":null,"decided_at":"2026-10-27T18:15:54.807Z","decision":"review_revise","delist_requested":false,"disputed_pct":0.2857,"investigation_id":"e5fd887a-c6fc-46c6-a7a5-a8cdb487cba0","judge_def_hash":"8800307026131ea9d5da939d32b9a1f1884b2b84a5de33c8e87931d36f38d0f8","new_score":56,"page_slug":"underdog-predict","prev_score":56,"reason":"Of 7 claims checked, 2 could not be verified (claim_findings[1], the Lamont quote, and claim_findings[2], the Connecticut withdrawal provision; the cited source did not contain either) and none were disputed, giving about 29%. The core regulatory narrative (Connecticut and Missouri cease-and-desist orders, Underdog's preemption suits) was supported. Three further claims were only partly supported: the Missouri 30-day window, a likely one-day offset in the lawsuit date, and the UDX launch day. The page also omits the pending IG Group acquisition of Underdog announced 2026-07-30 (omission_findings[0], material). The reviewer did not fetch several sources and its confidence was moderate, so the penalty is kept in the minor band.","reviewer_def_hash":"bc11388ce4bc4deea1b064fea362663ae06e3f4f687f99604769044d6ffba770","score_delta":0,"sequence_num":4,"severity_override":{"applied":false,"band":null,"from_band":"minor","reason":"The IG Group acquisition is a material omission, but the subject is confirmed operating and the page does not contradict its status. The omission is a missing corporate update rather than a risk the page hides, so it is reflected by placing the penalty at the upper end of the minor band instead of moving to the significant band."},"submission_content_hash":null,"submission_id":null,"submission_kind":null,"submission_valence":null,"v":1}

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