Underdog Predict
Last changed 2026-10-27 · Fact-check review — Fact-check review (verdict: revise): the reviewer checked the page's claims against its sources; the trust score did not change. Version history →
Why this score
| Every page starts at | 65 |
| Concerns that are not fraud | -18.4 |
| Problems around it, caused by others | -0.6 |
| Sum | 46 |
Score: 56/100 (kept between 0 and 100)
How scoring works →Page reliability: Fact-checked 2026-10-27 · 5 of 7 claims confirmed · 2 need better sources
anchored·5TZk2y…mQvCSummary
Underdog Predict is a sports-event-contract (prediction market) product operated by Underdog Sports LLC, the daily-fantasy-sports company, running on Underdog's own CFTC-licensed exchange (UDX) since July 2026. In September 2026 it was named in cease-and-desist actions by Connecticut and Missouri, which characterize its sports event contracts as unlicensed sports wagering rather than lawful derivatives trading. Underdog disputes this characterization and has sued several states, arguing federal commodities law preempts state gambling regulation; no court has yet ruled on the merits of that dispute, and this is a regulatory/jurisdictional conflict rather than an allegation of fraud or misappropriation of user funds.
Connected Entities
1 entityNo connected entities recorded yet — this investigation is not currently linked to any other page in the index.
Timeline(6 events)
1 March 2026
Underdog acquires Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc. and Aristotle Exchange DCO, Inc., giving it a CFTC-registered designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization.
SportsPro18 July 2026
Underdog launches its own CFTC-licensed exchange (UDX) and begins running Underdog Predict's sports event contracts on it.
BusinessWire / SBC Americas11 September 2026
Connecticut DCP begins issuing cease-and-desist orders to nine prediction-market operators, including Underdog Predict, ordering a halt to sports event contracts and permitting customer withdrawals.
WSHU16 September 2026
Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway sends cease-and-desist letters to six operators, including Underdog, giving 30 days to stop offering sports event contracts to Missouri residents.
Missouri Attorney General's Office16 September 2026
Underdog sues Connecticut (and separately Ohio, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Washington) seeking to block state cease-and-desist enforcement on federal preemption grounds.
The Block18 September 2026
Missouri AG's cease-and-desist orders to six prediction markets, including Underdog, reported publicly.
ABC17NEWSDecision Log
- slot 462168591 · hash 39WspB23vFpJmmBfpnPCwh5DfjvA5F5w29UQMJFkiwRA
- slot 462168586 · hash 5metu2f6nDsuWrDhgaqbX2mwBdQNVrd5ysLpwkT4onMN
- slot 455367857 · hash EGGunMDcD8BbTUM8snkLvSuxi6kZbcgBugsh9eePXscT
- slot 449590212 · hash 26enHvnYHxSFZCa4fT1k54hVn7JNGwxbg6Pinkunodwr
This investigation is cryptographically anchored to the Solana blockchain (4 decisions). 11 of 14 cited source URLs have an Internet Archive snapshot.
model: claude-code-investigator
generated: 9/23/2026, 4:08:12 AM
last updated: 10/27/2026, 6:15:55 PM
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