Verify a decision

{"actor":"system:backfill","investigation_id":"d69455a8-790b-4f01-a71b-38f0b7d23927","kind":"publish","page_slug":"aristotle-exchange-inc-predictit","published_at":"2026-10-14T12:04:31.570Z","sequence_num":1,"snapshot":{"content_type":"investigation","entity_name":"Aristotle Exchange, Inc. (PredictIt)","sections":[{"content":"Aristotle Exchange, Inc. is a Washington, D.C.-based entity founded by John Aristotle Phillips, who also co-founded Aristotle, Inc. in 1983, a nonpartisan political technology and voter data firm. Phillips gained early notoriety in the 1970s when, as a Princeton University aerospace engineering student, he wrote a term paper on designing a nuclear weapon using publicly available information — earning him the media nickname 'the A-Bomb Kid.' Aristotle Exchange was established to operate PredictIt, a political prediction market that launched on November 3, 2014, originally as a nonprofit educational project of Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. PredictIt grew to become one of the largest U.S. political prediction markets, trading hundreds of millions of shares on contracts tied to elections, nominations, and government actions.","heading":"Company Overview and Founding","severity":"low","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"John Aristotle Phillips — Wikipedia","type":"other","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Aristotle_Phillips"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Prediction Market PredictIt Launches in October — Yahoo Finance","type":"news_article","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-market-predictit-launches-october-212111466.html"}]},{"content":"PredictIt originally operated under a CFTC no-action letter issued in 2014 to Victoria University of Wellington, which permitted the platform to function as a small-scale, not-for-profit event-contract market for educational purposes without registering as a designated contract market. On August 4, 2022, the CFTC rescinded that no-action letter, stating that the platform had not operated in compliance with its terms, and ordered all contracts closed by February 15, 2023. The CFTC did not publicly explain the specific basis for the non-compliance finding.\n\nPredictIt and Aristotle International filed suit against the CFTC in September 2022 in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas. In January 2023, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals granted a temporary injunction allowing PredictIt to continue operating, finding that the CFTC's rescission was likely arbitrary and capricious. The United States District Court for the Western District of Texas entered final judgment in favor of PredictIt on July 22, 2025. As part of the resolution, the CFTC issued an amended no-action letter (CFTC Letter 25-20, dated July 14, 2025) transitioning platform leadership to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc. (PMRC), a not-for-profit academic consortium. The settlement also raised the per-trader position cap from $850 to $3,500 and removed a 5,000-trader limit per market, and barred the CFTC from future efforts to close the PredictIt markets.\n\nSeparately, Aristotle Exchange, Inc. obtained full CFTC approval to operate as both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) in September 2025, giving the company independently regulated exchange and clearinghouse infrastructure.","heading":"CFTC Regulatory History","severity":"medium","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"PredictIt Announces Resolution to Litigation with CFTC — Yahoo Finance","type":"regulatory","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/predictit-announces-resolution-litigation-cftc-203600125.html"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Court to CFTC: Take No Action on PredictIt Event Contract No-Action Relief — Willkie Compliance Concourse","type":"research","url":"https://complianceconcourse.willkie.com/articles/court-to-cftc-take-no-action-on-predictit-event-contract-no-action-relief/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Aristotle Receives CFTC Approval for DCM and DCO — GlobeNewswire","type":"official","url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/05/3145471/0/en/Aristotle-Receives-CFTC-Approval-for-DCM-and-DCO-Paving-the-Way-for-New-U.S.-Prediction-Market-Exchange.html"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Clarke v. CFTC, No. 22-51124 (5th Cir. 2023) — Justia","type":"court_filing","url":"https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca5/22-51124/22-51124-2023-07-21.html"}]},{"content":"On March 9–10, 2026, fantasy sports company Underdog announced the acquisition of Aristotle Exchange, Inc., including its CFTC-registered DCM and DCO licenses. The acquisition gave Underdog the ability to operate its own federally compliant prediction market platform rather than relying on a partnership with Crypto.com. Underdog CEO Jeremy Levine stated the company intends to focus primarily on sports prediction markets. According to reporting, PredictIt continued operating as an ongoing concern under the terms of its existing CFTC no-action letter framework through the PMRC following the acquisition. The acquisition price was not publicly disclosed. As a result of the acquisition, it is Underdog that now holds the Aristotle Exchange DCM and DCO registrations, while the congressional records request sent September 29, 2026, was addressed to John Aristotle Phillips as CEO of Aristotle Exchange, Inc., the entity named in the probe.","heading":"Acquisition by Underdog (March 2026)","severity":"low","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Acquires CFTC-Registered Aristotle Exchange to Expand Prediction Markets — CasinoBeats","type":"news_article","url":"https://casinobeats.com/2026/03/10/underdog-acquires-cftc-registered-aristotle-exchange-expand-prediction-markets/"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Fantasy Sports Firm Underdog Acquires Derivatives Exchange — Bloomberg","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/fantasy-sports-firm-underdog-acquires-derivatives-exchange"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Acquires Aristotle Exchange To Bring Prediction Markets In-House — DeFi Rate","type":"news_article","url":"https://defirate.com/news/underdog-acquires-aristotle-exchange-to-bring-prediction-markets-in-house/"}]},{"content":"On September 29, 2026, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) sent a formal records request letter to John Aristotle Phillips, identified as CEO of Aristotle Exchange, Inc., as part of an expanded congressional investigation into insider trading on online prediction market platforms. The letter requested documents and information covering the period January 1, 2024 to the present, and set a response deadline of October 13, 2026. The Committee requested records on: (1) identity verification procedures for account owners; (2) enforcement of geographic restrictions on users; (3) procedures for detecting and reporting suspicious trading activity; and (4) records tied to PredictIt event contracts on elections, presidential nominations, Federal Reserve decisions, and geopolitical outcomes.\n\nThe September 29 letters to Aristotle Exchange, Hyperliquid Labs, and Crypto.com represent an expansion of an earlier probe launched in May 2026 targeting Kalshi and Polymarket. By the time of the September expansion, the Committee had already received nearly 1,000 documents and held five briefings with Polymarket and Kalshi representatives. Chairman Comer stated that the investigation could inform legislation, including a potential ban on government officials trading on prediction market platforms.\n\nAs of the date of this investigation (October 14, 2026), no confirmed public response from Aristotle Exchange or Underdog regarding the October 13 deadline has been reported. The absence of a public response does not in itself constitute non-compliance, as responses to congressional records requests are often transmitted privately to the Committee.","heading":"House Oversight Committee Investigation (September 2026)","severity":"high","sources":[{"credibility":1,"name":"Comer Continues Investigation into Insider Trading on Online Prediction Market Platforms — House Oversight Committee","type":"official","url":"https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-continues-investigation-into-insider-trading-on-online-prediction-market-platforms/"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Formal letter to Aristotle Exchange CEO John Aristotle Phillips dated September 29, 2026 — House Oversight Committee","type":"official","url":"https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Predict.It-Letter-9.29.26.pdf"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Comer Widens House Probe Into Prediction Market Insider Trading — CNBC","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/comer-house-prediction-market-insider-trading.html"},{"credibility":2,"name":"House Oversight Targets Hyperliquid, Crypto.com and PredictIt in Insider Trading Probe — Unchained","type":"news_article","url":"https://unchainedcrypto.com/house-oversight-targets-hyperliquid-crypto-com-and-predictit-in-insider-trading-probe/"}]},{"content":"The House Oversight investigation references two distinct incidents that motivated the expansion of the probe, neither of which directly involves Aristotle Exchange or PredictIt as platforms where the alleged misconduct occurred.\n\nFirst, Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was indicted on April 24, 2026, on five federal counts — including unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. Prosecutors allege that Van Dyke, a Special Forces soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, placed approximately $33,000 in bets on Polymarket between December 27, 2025 and January 2, 2026, on contracts predicting U.S. forces would enter Venezuela and that President Nicolas Maduro would be removed, allegedly using classified intelligence about an upcoming military operation. The bets allegedly generated more than $409,000 in profit. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty in late April 2026. His defense has moved to dismiss the charges, arguing the prosecution relies on a novel interpretation of law and that Van Dyke lacked fair notice his conduct was prohibited. As of available reporting, no verdict has been reached. This case occurred on Polymarket, not on PredictIt.\n\nSecond, congressional letters cited a roughly $1.1 billion leveraged short position in Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures placed on the Hyperliquid derivatives platform approximately 30 hours before President Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, a trade that allegedly generated more than $150 million in profit. According to reporting, the final portion of the short was placed approximately one minute before Trump posted about the tariff on Truth Social. Comer's letter did not identify the trader or establish that the trader possessed advance knowledge of the government decision. Former BitForex CEO Garrett Jin publicly denied involvement. This incident involved Hyperliquid, a crypto derivatives platform, not a prediction market, and the connection to classified information remains alleged and unproven as of available reporting.\n\nBoth incidents are cited as context for why the Committee expanded scrutiny to additional platforms including Aristotle Exchange, but neither establishes that PredictIt or Aristotle Exchange was a venue for the specific alleged misconduct.","heading":"Related Incidents Cited by Congress","severity":"high","sources":[{"credibility":1,"name":"Soldier Charged With Insider Trading on Polymarket — Time","type":"news_article","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/04/24/soldier-charged-insider-trading-polymarket-van-dyke-maduro-capture-trump/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Soldier Charged in Polymarket Insider Trading Case Pleads Not Guilty — Decrypt","type":"news_article","url":"https://decrypt.co/365858/soldier-charged-polymarket-insider-trading-case-pleads-not-guilty"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Special Forces Sergeant Moves to Dismiss Charges in First Polymarket Prediction Market Insider Case — SCCG Management","type":"news_article","url":"https://sccgmanagement.com/sccg-articles/2026/08/05/special-forces-sergeant-moves-to-dismiss-charges-in-first-polymarket-prediction-market-insider-case/"},{"credibility":1,"name":"House Targets Hyperliquid in Insider Trading Probe, Cites $1.1B Crypto Short Before Trump Tariffs — Yahoo Finance","type":"news_article","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/house-targets-hyperliquid-insider-trading-183009740.html"},{"credibility":3,"name":"U.S. House Probes Hyperliquid Over $1.1 Billion Crypto Short Before Trump Tariff Announcement — KuCoin","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/u-s-house-probes-hyperliquid-over-1-1-billion-crypto-short-before-trump-tariff-announcement"}]},{"content":"The Committee's letter to Aristotle Exchange requested that the company produce: all policies and procedures relating to identity verification (know-your-customer) for account holders; policies governing geographic restrictions on who may participate; all records of suspicious trading activity, including any referrals made to law enforcement or regulators; and all records relating to event contracts tied to elections, presidential and federal judicial nominations, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and geopolitical outcomes. The probe is specifically focused on whether any current or former government employees, contractors, or individuals with security clearances participated in trading based on nonpublic information. No specific allegation of misconduct by PredictIt users has been publicly identified in the Committee's materials as of available reporting.","heading":"Scope of Congressional Records Request","severity":"medium","sources":[{"credibility":1,"name":"Formal letter to Aristotle Exchange CEO John Aristotle Phillips dated September 29, 2026 — House Oversight Committee","type":"official","url":"https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Predict.It-Letter-9.29.26.pdf"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Comer expands House probe into prediction market insider trading to Hyperliquid, Crypto.com, and PredictIt — Prediction News","type":"news_article","url":"https://predictionnews.com/story/rep-james-comer-expands-house-investigation-into-prediction-market-insider-tradi"},{"credibility":2,"name":"House Oversight Seeks Identity-Check Records From Three Platforms — Token Post","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/25917"}]},{"content":"As of July 2025, PredictIt operates under CFTC no-action letter 25-20 with oversight transferred to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc., an academic not-for-profit. The platform is legally available to U.S. users in all states, reflecting its favorable resolution of the 2022–2025 CFTC litigation. Aristotle Exchange, Inc. separately holds CFTC DCM and DCO registrations obtained in September 2025, representing a higher level of regulatory authorization than a no-action letter. These registrations were transferred to Underdog as part of the March 2026 acquisition. The existence of formal CFTC oversight and registration is a material factor when evaluating the platform's regulatory compliance posture relative to offshore or unregistered alternatives. The congressional probe does not allege that Aristotle Exchange violated its regulatory obligations; rather, it requests information about the adequacy of the platform's controls.","heading":"Regulatory Standing and Compliance Infrastructure","severity":"low","sources":[{"credibility":2,"name":"PredictIt Announces Resolution to Litigation with CFTC — Yahoo Finance","type":"regulatory","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/predictit-announces-resolution-litigation-cftc-203600125.html"},{"credibility":2,"name":"PredictIt, CFTC Reach Settlement in Longstanding Lawsuit — Covers","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.covers.com/industry/predictit-and-cftc-reach-settlement-in-longstanding-lawsuit"},{"credibility":3,"name":"Is PredictIt Legal? Regulation, CFTC Status and U.S. Access 2026 — ATS.io","type":"research","url":"https://ats.io/prediction-markets/predictit/legal/"}]}],"sources_used":[{"credibility":1,"name":"Comer Continues Investigation into Insider Trading on Online Prediction Market Platforms — House Oversight Committee","type":"official","url":"https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-continues-investigation-into-insider-trading-on-online-prediction-market-platforms/"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Formal letter to Aristotle Exchange CEO John Aristotle Phillips, September 29, 2026 — House Oversight Committee","type":"official","url":"https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Predict.It-Letter-9.29.26.pdf"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Comer Widens House Probe Into Prediction Market Insider Trading — CNBC","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/comer-house-prediction-market-insider-trading.html"},{"credibility":2,"name":"House Oversight Targets Hyperliquid, Crypto.com and PredictIt in Insider Trading Probe — Unchained Crypto","type":"news_article","url":"https://unchainedcrypto.com/house-oversight-targets-hyperliquid-crypto-com-and-predictit-in-insider-trading-probe/"},{"credibility":1,"name":"House Targets Hyperliquid in Insider Trading Probe, Cites $1.1B Crypto Short Before Trump Tariffs — Yahoo Finance","type":"news_article","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/house-targets-hyperliquid-insider-trading-183009740.html"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Comer expands House probe into prediction market insider trading to Hyperliquid, Crypto.com, and PredictIt — Prediction News","type":"news_article","url":"https://predictionnews.com/story/rep-james-comer-expands-house-investigation-into-prediction-market-insider-tradi"},{"credibility":2,"name":"PredictIt Announces Resolution to Litigation with CFTC — Yahoo Finance","type":"news_article","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/predictit-announces-resolution-litigation-cftc-203600125.html"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Clarke v. CFTC, No. 22-51124 (5th Cir. 2023) — Justia","type":"court_filing","url":"https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca5/22-51124/22-51124-2023-07-21.html"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Aristotle Receives CFTC Approval for DCM and DCO — GlobeNewswire","type":"official","url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/05/3145471/0/en/Aristotle-Receives-CFTC-Approval-for-DCM-and-DCO-Paving-the-Way-for-New-U.S.-Prediction-Market-Exchange.html"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Fantasy Sports Firm Underdog Acquires Derivatives Exchange — Bloomberg","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/fantasy-sports-firm-underdog-acquires-derivatives-exchange"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Acquires CFTC-Registered Aristotle Exchange to Expand Prediction Markets — CasinoBeats","type":"news_article","url":"https://casinobeats.com/2026/03/10/underdog-acquires-cftc-registered-aristotle-exchange-expand-prediction-markets/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Underdog Acquires Aristotle Exchange To Bring Prediction Markets In-House — DeFi Rate","type":"news_article","url":"https://defirate.com/news/underdog-acquires-aristotle-exchange-to-bring-prediction-markets-in-house/"},{"credibility":1,"name":"Soldier Charged With Insider Trading on Polymarket — Time","type":"news_article","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/04/24/soldier-charged-insider-trading-polymarket-van-dyke-maduro-capture-trump/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Soldier Charged in Polymarket Insider Trading Case Pleads Not Guilty — Decrypt","type":"news_article","url":"https://decrypt.co/365858/soldier-charged-polymarket-insider-trading-case-pleads-not-guilty"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Special Forces Sergeant Moves to Dismiss Charges — SCCG Management","type":"news_article","url":"https://sccgmanagement.com/sccg-articles/2026/08/05/special-forces-sergeant-moves-to-dismiss-charges-in-first-polymarket-prediction-market-insider-case/"},{"credibility":3,"name":"Hyperliquid Insider Trading Probe: Congress Sets October 13 Deadline — AirdropAlert","type":"news_article","url":"https://airdropalert.com/blogs/hyperliquid-insider-trading-probe/"},{"credibility":3,"name":"U.S. House Probes Hyperliquid Over $1.1 Billion Crypto Short — KuCoin News","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/u-s-house-probes-hyperliquid-over-1-1-billion-crypto-short-before-trump-tariff-announcement"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Court to CFTC: Take No Action on PredictIt Event Contract No-Action Relief — Willkie Compliance Concourse","type":"research","url":"https://complianceconcourse.willkie.com/articles/court-to-cftc-take-no-action-on-predictit-event-contract-no-action-relief/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"Polymarket Insider Trading Charges Illustrate DOJ and CFTC Prediction Markets Enforcement Strategy — NYU Compliance","type":"research","url":"https://wp.nyu.edu/compliance_enforcement/2026/05/14/polymarket-insider-trading-charges-illustrate-doj-and-cftc-prediction-markets-enforcement-strategy/"},{"credibility":2,"name":"PredictIt, CFTC Reach Settlement in Longstanding Lawsuit — Covers","type":"news_article","url":"https://www.covers.com/industry/predictit-and-cftc-reach-settlement-in-longstanding-lawsuit"}],"summary":"Aristotle Exchange, Inc. is a Washington, D.C.-based political technology company founded by John Aristotle Phillips that operates PredictIt, a regulated U.S. political prediction market. In September 2025, the company received CFTC approval to operate as a Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, and was subsequently acquired by fantasy sports firm Underdog in March 2026. On September 29, 2026, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer sent a formal records request to Aristotle Exchange as part of an expanded congressional investigation into insider trading on prediction market platforms using nonpublic or classified government information, with a response deadline of October 13, 2026.","timeline":[{"date":"1983-01-01","event":"John Aristotle Phillips co-founds Aristotle, Inc., a political technology and voter data company in Washington, D.C.","source":"Aristotle.com About page","source_url":"https://www.aristotle.com/about/"},{"date":"2014-01-01","event":"CFTC issues no-action letter to Victoria University of Wellington permitting PredictIt to operate as a small-scale, nonprofit educational prediction market.","source":"Willkie Compliance Concourse","source_url":"https://complianceconcourse.willkie.com/articles/court-to-cftc-take-no-action-on-predictit-event-contract-no-action-relief/"},{"date":"2014-11-03","event":"PredictIt launches as a political prediction market, operated in partnership between Aristotle Exchange and Victoria University of Wellington.","source":"Yahoo Finance","source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-market-predictit-launches-october-212111466.html"},{"date":"2022-08-04","event":"CFTC rescinds PredictIt's no-action letter, citing non-compliance with terms, and orders all contracts closed by February 15, 2023.","source":"Willkie Compliance Concourse","source_url":"https://complianceconcourse.willkie.com/articles/court-to-cftc-take-no-action-on-predictit-event-contract-no-action-relief/"},{"date":"2022-09-01","event":"PredictIt and Aristotle International file suit against the CFTC in U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas.","source":"Mick Bransfield legal analysis","source_url":"https://mickbransfield.com/2023/02/15/predictit-legal-case-information/"},{"date":"2023-01-26","event":"Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals grants temporary injunction allowing PredictIt to continue operating, finding CFTC rescission was likely arbitrary and capricious.","source":"Clarke v. CFTC, No. 22-51124 (5th Cir. 2023) — Justia","source_url":"https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca5/22-51124/22-51124-2023-07-21.html"},{"date":"2025-07-14","event":"CFTC issues amended no-action letter 25-20, transitioning PredictIt's operational responsibility to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc. (PMRC).","source":"Yahoo Finance — PredictIt CFTC settlement announcement","source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/predictit-announces-resolution-litigation-cftc-203600125.html"},{"date":"2025-07-22","event":"U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas enters final judgment in favor of PredictIt, resolving the CFTC litigation.","source":"Yahoo Finance — PredictIt CFTC settlement announcement","source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/predictit-announces-resolution-litigation-cftc-203600125.html"},{"date":"2025-09-05","event":"Aristotle Exchange, Inc. receives CFTC approval to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).","source":"GlobeNewswire","source_url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/05/3145471/0/en/Aristotle-Receives-CFTC-Approval-for-DCM-and-DCO-Paving-the-Way-for-New-U.S.-Prediction-Market-Exchange.html"},{"date":"2025-10-10","event":"A trader allegedly places a roughly $1.1 billion leveraged short on Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures on Hyperliquid approximately 30 hours before President Trump's tariff announcement on China, generating an alleged profit exceeding $150 million. Congressional investigation later cites this incident; the trader has not been identified, and no charges have been filed as of available reporting.","source":"Yahoo Finance — House Targets Hyperliquid","source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/house-targets-hyperliquid-insider-trading-183009740.html"},{"date":"2025-12-27","event":"Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly begins placing prediction market bets on Polymarket on contracts related to Venezuela and the status of President Maduro, allegedly using classified intelligence about a U.S. military operation. (Dates per federal indictment; Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.)","source":"Time — Soldier Charged With Insider Trading on Polymarket","source_url":"https://time.com/article/2026/04/24/soldier-charged-insider-trading-polymarket-van-dyke-maduro-capture-trump/"},{"date":"2026-03-09","event":"Underdog announces acquisition of Aristotle Exchange, Inc., including its CFTC DCM and DCO licenses. PredictIt continues operating under the PMRC no-action letter framework.","source":"Bloomberg","source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/fantasy-sports-firm-underdog-acquires-derivatives-exchange"},{"date":"2026-04-24","event":"Federal indictment unsealed against Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke on five counts related to alleged insider trading on Polymarket using classified military intelligence. Van Dyke enters a not guilty plea in late April.","source":"Time — Soldier Charged With Insider Trading on Polymarket","source_url":"https://time.com/article/2026/04/24/soldier-charged-insider-trading-polymarket-van-dyke-maduro-capture-trump/"},{"date":"2026-05-01","event":"House Oversight Committee launches initial investigation into prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, examining adequacy of safeguards against insider trading using nonpublic government information.","source":"House Oversight Committee press release","source_url":"https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-continues-investigation-into-insider-trading-on-online-prediction-market-platforms/"},{"date":"2026-09-29","event":"Chairman Comer sends formal records request letters to Aristotle Exchange, Inc. (PredictIt), Hyperliquid Labs, and Crypto.com, expanding the congressional insider trading investigation. Response deadline set for October 13, 2026.","source":"House Oversight Committee — formal letter to Aristotle Exchange","source_url":"https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Predict.It-Letter-9.29.26.pdf"},{"date":"2026-10-13","event":"Congressional response deadline passes for Aristotle Exchange, Hyperliquid, and Crypto.com. No confirmed public response from Aristotle Exchange or Underdog has been reported as of October 14, 2026.","source":"Hyperliquid Insider Trading Probe: Congress Sets October 13 Deadline — AirdropAlert","source_url":"https://airdropalert.com/blogs/hyperliquid-insider-trading-probe/"}]},"v":1}