Michele Spagnuolo (AlphaRaccoon)
Last changed 2026-10-10 · Score recalculated — Rescored under Scoring v2, the published formula (avoid.net/scoring): 0 → 26. Problems weighed by who is responsible: the subject's own conduct −98, problems around the subject, caused by others −2.3; legitimacy credit long-running +4; no established finding that it defrauded anyone, so it stays out of the red band; fact-check adjustments (−13) now shown as page reliability, not in the score. Version history →
Why this score
| Every page starts at | 65 |
| The subject's own conduct | -98 |
| Problems around it, caused by others | -2.3 |
| Long-running | +4 |
| Sum | -31 |
- No established finding that it defrauded anyone, so it stays out of the red band (26 or above).
Score: 26/100 (kept between 0 and 100)
How scoring works →Summary
Michele Spagnuolo, 36, a Staff Information Security Engineer at Google Zürich known in crypto communities as 'AlphaRaccoon,' was arrested in New York on May 27, 2026 and charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. Federal prosecutors allege he accessed confidential internal Google 'Year in Search 2025' data and used it to place approximately $2.75 million in bets on Polymarket prediction markets between October and December 2025, netting over $1.2 million in alleged illegal profits. The case, filed in the Southern District of New York alongside a parallel CFTC civil enforcement action, is among the first insider trading prosecutions applied to a crypto prediction market platform.
Connected Entities
4 entities · 60 linked investigations- Michele Spagnuolo→mentioned with→Bitcoin(70%)
- Michele Spagnuolo→mentioned with→Polymarket(70%)
- Michele Spagnuolo (AlphaRaccoon)→mentioned with→Polymarket(70%)
- Michele Spagnuolo (AlphaRaccoon)→mentioned with→Michele Spagnuolo(80%)
- Michele Spagnuolo (AlphaRaccoon)→mentioned with→Bitcoin(70%)
Connected Through
3 shared actors · 497 investigationsDistinct actors this investigation shares with others — holders, traders, and named parties. Shared infrastructure (exchanges, pools) is excluded.
- ♦Bitcointoken
- □Polymarketorganization
- □Michele Spagnuoloorganizationalso in
Timeline(8 events)
May 2024
AlphaRaccoon account created on Polymarket (approximate date per available records).
CNBC / DOJ complaint15 October 2025
Spagnuolo allegedly accessed Google internal Year in Search tool at approximately 21:25 UTC. Data at that time showed Kendrick Lamar as the top trending person for 2025. AlphaRaccoon account began placing bets on related Polymarket contracts.
DOJ Criminal Complaint / CFTC Civil Complaint27 November 2025
Spagnuolo allegedly accessed the same internal Google tool again, discovering D4vd had replaced Kendrick Lamar at the top of the Year in Search list. Within approximately three hours, AlphaRaccoon placed bets on D4vd-related contracts on Polymarket.
DOJ Criminal Complaint / CBS News4 December 2025
Google publicly announced its Year in Search 2025 results. D4vd was revealed as the most-searched person. AlphaRaccoon's approximately 23-25 bets resolved, generating approximately $1.2 million in profits from approximately $2.754 million wagered.
CFTC Press Release 9237-265 December 2025
AlphaRaccoon's 22-for-23 success rate on Year in Search contracts drew public attention. Crypto community members on X and Polymarket Discord began speculating the trader had insider access. Spagnuolo allegedly transferred approximately 5.045 million USDC.e from the account through cryptocurrency swapping services.
Yahoo Finance / The Register / NBC NewsDecember 2025
Spagnuolo allegedly removed the 'AlphaRaccoon' username from his Polymarket profile, reverting the account to a raw alphanumeric wallet address. The FBI later cited this as evidence of consciousness of guilt forming the basis of the money laundering count.
The Register / NBC News23 April 2026
SDNY unseals separate charges against U.S. Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke for using classified military information to trade on Polymarket (Venezuela/Maduro contracts), establishing the first prediction market insider trading prosecution framework.
DOJ OPA Press Release27 May 2026
Michele Spagnuolo arrested in New York. Criminal complaint unsealed in SDNY charging commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. CFTC simultaneously filed civil enforcement action. Spagnuolo appeared before U.S. Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn and was released on a $2.25 million bond. He did not enter a plea. Google placed him on administrative leave.
DOJ SDNY Press Release / CFTC Press Release 9237-26Decision Log
- slot 455360664 · hash 2Xjr1c1ozzco2nGi4CNvwuCpiiz2VcnSdm3theYwHahy
- slot 443510636 · hash J5ANk2BMLBtKizVyY5QvZVaEcA2vvRy5y256ZBbzrVA6
- slot 443510630 · hash 2Tpdaag6zmW8rd4Aw2Z66YjhTbpvYFrfU3H4gkP1wkw5
- slot 423909919 · hash EM79MqyEf3wnuaJe7M5gRyY8u5FPoVK74CBZiQ7LEKhy
This investigation is cryptographically anchored to the Solana blockchain (4 decisions). 20 of 22 cited source URLs have an Internet Archive snapshot.
model: claude-sonnet-4-6
generated: 6/2/2026, 11:33:48 PM
last updated: 10/10/2026, 6:41:33 PM
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